{"id":25511,"date":"2019-09-27T12:53:00","date_gmt":"2019-09-27T16:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.btsh.org\/bruise\/?p=25511"},"modified":"2019-09-27T12:53:58","modified_gmt":"2019-09-27T16:53:58","slug":"week-18-aka-dinner-check-week-previews-game-lines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/week-18-aka-dinner-check-week-previews-game-lines\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 18 (aka Dinner Check Week) Previews & Game Lines"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

By Arya Stark & The Meatbox<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we enter the final week of the most wide-open season in recent history, I\u2019m reminded of a Bill Simmons column from 2010, so long ago that he was still a quality sportswriter and not a terrible TV personality, Meatbox and I were still in college, and Rich and Ariel still had hair (presumably). It’s so long ago that the original article has been deleted and only the cached version<\/a> still exists on the internet:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s say two friends just finished dinner at a steakhouse. The check comes. Unless they agree to split the bill, the next three seconds will go one of four ways.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. One friend grabs the check as the other friend says “no, no, no!” and puts up a token fight.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. One friend grabs the check as the other friend doesn’t put up a fight.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Both reach for the check at the same time, fight over who’s paying it and do the dueling, “no no no no, lemme get it, no no no no no” routine.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Both pretend not to see it because neither wants to pay.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Each scenario comes down to one simple question: Who wanted the check more? In the first two scenarios, one friend wanted it more than the other. In the third scenario, luck usually determined the winner — where the waiter placed the check determined who grabbed it first. In the fourth scenario, someone eventually has to care or else they’ll be sitting there forever. So really, it’s about caring. Who cared more on that day?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are lots of factors determining who will win Sunday\u2019s games, but this is the one to keep in mind as we handicap the final day of the season which will determine playoff seeding and matchups (and who out there is a cheap bastard).  Onto the picks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fresh Kills @ Rehabs<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Fresh Kills: <\/strong>The Fresh Kills have had their worst season in recent memory and will look to build some momentum going into the playoffs (or ploffs, if you will).  Whether they finish 14th or 15th, they are sure to face high seeds in every round after they wallop their play-in opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Rehabs:<\/strong> After an up-and-down season the Habs still have a shot at 3rd place, although that means they might have to face these very same Fresh Kills in the round of 16. Alternatively, losing could drop them as low as 6 or 7 where they could end up with Cobra Kai or Fuzz in round 1. Feels like this is a game you want to win and hope that the teams above you win as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series trend: <\/strong>The Fresh Kills beat the Rehabs in the 2017 Championship. They split the season series in 2018 and the Rehabs won their one meeting this season 4-0.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Rehabs (-135), Fresh Kills (-105). I fully expect every player from FK who has yet to make 5 games to show up for this and then magically have their schedule completely clear up for the next four weeks (it\u2019s honestly incredible how many people are sooooooo busy 11 months of the year, but not October! *eye roll emoji*). With the rare non-playoff occurence of having the full squad in tow for Fresh Kills, expect this to be a closer game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Rehabs (-160), Fresh Kills (+120).  The Rehabs are in a strange Catch-22 esque situation with seeding.  If they beat the Fresh Kills, they\u2019ll move up in the standings and have a good shot at facing them.  If they lose to them, they\u2019ll probably finish 5th but will open the door for Fresh Kills to move all the way up to 12th, which means they\u2019d meet anyways.  I think the Rehabs will want this game a lot more, and thus I would have to install them as a relatively heavy favorite for a matchup of this caliber. Plus, as we all know, the Fresh Kills aren’t fans of paying their own checks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Truly one of the great moments in social media history<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Gremlins @ Instant Karma (11 min remaining, Karma leads 1-0)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Gremlins: <\/strong>Not a ton – winning this and their second game could jump them as high as 11th place, but losing this and their second game can only drop them one spot. They\u2019re pretty locked into that 13-14 seed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Karma: <\/strong>Besides having to listen to JW ramble about his +\/- in the event they don\u2019t score when he\u2019s on the court? With two wins Sunday, there is an outside chance they could climb as high as the 8 seed. It seems more likely they end up getting the 9 seed and a first round date with Poutine though.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: Gremlins took game 1 between them this season and have taken 5 of the last 5 regular season meetings. Karma\u2019s last win in this series was in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Karma (-250), Gremlins (+200). This has more to do with the fact that there is only 11 minutes left and Karma is up than anything else. Pretty evenly matched teams, but Karma has been very good this year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Gremlins (+115), Karma (-155).  Karma has been the better team this year as the Gremlins seem to just be going through the motions of finishing off this season.  Karma notched an impressive victory over Poutine just two weeks ago while the Gremlins\u2019 only victory since June was against Gut Rot.  Plus Commish Meatbox informs me there\u2019s only 11 minutes left and Karma is up a goal. Not good.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Gremlins are sure to be Tremble-ing with fear<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Filthier @ Fresh Kills (2nd game for FK):<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Filthier: <\/strong>Filthier can climb all the way to 3rd with a victory and losses by the teams in front of them as they would hold the wins tiebreaker.  Of course, that could also mean meeting these same Fresh Kills in round 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Fresh Kills: <\/strong>As previously mentioned, it\u2019s been a season to forget and they\u2019re probably excited to just get it over with and lay an old-school beating in the play-in round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: Simply put, Filthier has owned their souls in recent years.  In 2017 when FK was undefeated their only loss was to Filthy in a shootout where James pulled the incredible feat of scoring the winner while concussing the opponent\u2019s goalie on the same play, a historic feat that few have attempted or pulled off in hockey history.  Filthy then swept the season series in 2018 before knocking Fresh Kills out of the playoffs, and won their only meeting this season as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Filthier (-120), Fresh Kills (-120). See comments on Fresh Kills roster in Rehabs\/Fresh Kills preview. Filthier always seems to be Fresh Kills\u2019 kryptonite. We\u2019ll see if that continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Filthier (-180), Fresh Kills (+140).  Filthy is a proud team who will want to get the best standings position possible going into the playoffs.  Fresh Kills is just waiting for the playoffs to start so they can show Meg they\u2019re actually a great team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Don’t mess with Ann-imal – she will have you killed like she did to this poor sheep<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Poutine Machine @ Gremlins (2nd game for Gremlins):<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Poutine: <\/strong>A win could send them as high as the six seed 6 if both Filthier and the Demons lose. A loss could have them drop to 9 if Karma goes 2-0 on the day. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Gremlins: <\/strong>See previous Gremlins preview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: They\u2019ve split their last four meetings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Poutine (-200), Gremlins (+160).  The Gremlins have been tumbling in the standings and should finish around 13th while Poutine can still move up to 6th place.  I\u2019m not sure if Poutine really cares about that but if Dickie shows up he will allow 0-1 goals, and that should be enough to lock in the W.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Same as Arya on this one. A lot will depend on who shows up for the Gremlins this week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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BTSH photo archives are just full of great hair<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What the Puck @ Instant Karma (2nd game for Karma)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for WTP: <\/strong>Their highest finish in a long time. A win plus a hookers loss vaults them to 3rd place. A loss could drop them as low as 7. The 3-8 seeds essentially have a minefield of first round opponents to maneuver, so there\u2019s really no benefit to intentionally losing this one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Karma: <\/strong>See previous Karma preview minus the bits on JW since he most likely won\u2019t be playing for WTP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: Karma won their matchup this season in OT. 2018\u2019s matchup went to Karma, with WTP getting the W in 2017.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> WTP (-145), Karma (+105).  Karma has had a surprising season but few teams have overachieved like WTP who will not only upset Poutine to win D3 but haven\u2019t lost since June and could finish #3 in the standings.  Derek will have to put the team on his back and Steve will have to be spectacular in net for Karma to pull the upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>WTP (-125), Karma (-110). Agree that WTP is the favorite here, but Karma has been solid all season. I expect this to be a pretty close game, possibly another OT one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Karma will be bringing all their tallest players to this one<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Gouging Anklebiters @ LBS, Inc (winner gets 1st, loser gets 2nd)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Biters: <\/strong>1st Place<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for LBS: <\/strong>1st Place<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: I don\u2019t think we\u2019ve had a 1 vs 2 game quite like this since Rehabs-Fuzz in 2016. The Biters have won the last 2 games in the series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Biters (-120), LBS (-120).  A true toss-up depending on who shows up and which team\u2019s the most hungover. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>LBS (-125), Biters (-115). Still give the nod the the LBS here, especially coming off last week\u2019s last minute loss to the Rehabs. Look for them to come out strong, with a full roster of players getting their fifth game and possibly a sub or two. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Pre-game naps are an essential part of peak athletic performance…<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
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…especially if you’ve been on a three day coke and stripper bender prior to puck drop<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Mathematics @ Cobra Kai<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Math: <\/strong>They can drop to 17th with a loss or 15th with a win. However a win could also keep them from facing relegation next season – do they throw the game on purpose or do they want to stay in D2?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Cobra Kai: <\/strong>Cobra Kai can jump up to 9th with a win or fall as low as 12th with a loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: Cobra Kai has won the last two meetings (the two didn\u2019t play in the season in 2017, but Math did pull the 5\/12 upset over Cobra Kai in the playoffs that year).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Math (+145), Cobra Kai (-185).  Both teams have had disappointing seasons and would love to finish on a high note, but if Campbell\u2019s back in town and\/or CK has their full lineup, they\u2019re the obvious pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>CK (-200) Math (+160). Love Math, but for the love of God, please show up. A squared plus b squared only equals c squared if a squared and b squared make it to their damn game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Meatbox Math lessons are the best…as long as he keeps it in the pants<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Tompkins Square Riots @ Dark Rainbows<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Riots: <\/strong>A loss coupled with a Gut Rot win (albeit an unlikely one), would lead to the Riots finishing 20th in the league. A win keeps them in 19th. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Rainbows: <\/strong>Maybe 17th place if they win. Losing does nothing for their position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: Rainbows won their earlier match this year, but the Riots have won 3 of the last 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Riots (+110), Rainbows (-150).  The Rainbows have had a disappointing season thus far but just have too much talent up front for the Riots D to handle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Rainbows (-140) Riots (EVEN). I want to favor the Rainbows more, but D4 games tend to be unpredictable. On paper, the Rainbows are definitely the better team, but as Arya Stark once said before *SPOILER ALERT* slicing Walder’s throat, \u201cyou killed my family and D4 games make no sense to me.\u201d *SPOILER OVER*<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spoiler alert – she’s got 30 gold dragons on the Rainbows<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Denim Demons @ Gut Rot (super sub day for demons)<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Demons: <\/strong>A holy day of prayer and the potential to move up to 5th, although they pretty much locked up the division title the day the schedule was announced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Gut Rot: <\/strong>Tequila shots if they win, peyote buttons if they lose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: The teams met once this season, a 7-0 victory for the Demons.  Last year, the Demons beat them 5-2 in the regular season before they met in the play-in round where the Demons obviously won, this time by a score of 4-1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Demons (-400), Gut Rot (+300).  The only reason the line is this close is because it\u2019s unclear who from the Demons is actually showing up.  Presumably they will have had some kind of hockey experience, however, and thus will be heavily favored to win this game.  The Demons apparently tried to reschedule this game for Rosh Hashana but were rebuffed by the goys in green. They\u2019ll be icing a lineup of the two gentiles on the team plus a bunch of random free agents who are presumably not pipe-hitting members of the tribe.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>\u201cThis close\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As #subgate rages on, I fully expect an angry Demons team to show up and win this won. Given I don\u2019t know who the subs will be, I\u2019d probably say it\u2019s more like Demons (-300), Gut Rot (+200). I do expect the non-sub players on the Demons to come into this with a chip on their shoulder, so this one probably gets put away early. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Live look at Demons headquarters<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Mega Touch @ Sky Fighters<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Mega: <\/strong>Mega can move up one spot to 11th or tumble down as far as 14th, although that scenario is extremely unlikely.  They probably just want to lock-in the play-in bye which would require an 11th or 12th place finish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Sky: <\/strong>The Sky Fighters are locked in the play-in round and whether they play Math or the Rainbows it\u2019ll be a tough game.  More realistically, they\u2019d like to show their new players that they can win big games which would go a long way towards not being ravaged in the offseason for the third consecutive year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: The teams didn\u2019t meet this season or last.  You\u2019d have to go all the way back to July of 2017 when the Sky Fighters beat Mega 4-3.  As alluded to earlier, however, that was a very, very different Sky Fighters team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>Mega (-120), Sky (-120). I don\u2019t even know who I would pick in this one. Mega has wins against Cobra Kai and the Demons this year, but they\u2019ve also lost to Gut Rot and the Rainbows. Which Mega team shows up? The Sky Fighters seem to win games they\u2019re supposed to and lose the ones you\u2019d expect, I just don\u2019t know if I expect them to win or lose this one. Toss up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Mega (-110), Sky (-130).  Call it a hunch but I think the Sky Fighters are way better than they\u2019ve shown this season, and unless Matt, Tash and especially Shelly are all in Sunday, Mega\u2019s likely to get upset in this one.  Good news – they\u2019ll still likely finish 12th and get the play-in bye. Bad news – they\u2019ll still definitely get smoked by the Rehabs, Filthier or whomever finishes as the 5th seed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Wrong Picard! He’d be great at center though.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Corlears Hookers @ Butchers<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Hookers: <\/strong>A fascinating scenario might play out in this one.  Since it\u2019s the final game of the regular season and the Fresh Kills are likely to be the 14 seed (depending on what happens earlier in the day), they could possibly be in a position to throw the game to ensure they get an easier matchup in round 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\u2019s at stake for Butchers: <\/strong>They could move from 15th to 14th which would allow them to avoid a rematch with the Rainbows, the team that upset them last season, and allow them to face the Riots instead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Series<\/strong> trend<\/strong>: The Hookers have won the last two meetings between these teams 1-0, with both games requiring overtime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Arya\u2019s Game Line:<\/strong> Hookers (-200), Butchers (+160).  Point-shaving scandals are juicy but I don\u2019t know if we\u2019re quite ready for them in BTSH.  Besides, who wants to show up for Sunday hockey and then not even attempt to win (well, I guess there are some D4 teams that kinda do this).  If the Hookers have a decent lineup and want to win, they will win. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meatbox Game Line: <\/strong>No one tell the Hookers the early game outcomes! Agree on -200 and +160 here. I think the Hookers have shown that they are one of the most talented teams in the league this year and it seems like all the pieces are finally meshing there. Look for them to keep rolling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Wrong Hookers! They’d be great on D though (and with that, we’re out)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Arya Stark & The Meatbox As we enter the final week of the most wide-open season in recent history, I\u2019m reminded of a Bill Simmons column from 2010, so long ago that he was still a quality sportswriter and not a terrible TV personality, Meatbox and I were still in college, and Rich and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6355,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-league-info"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25511"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6355"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25511"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25524,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25511\/revisions\/25524"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.miyagimedia.com\/bruise\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}